Housing Bubble View – Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Base Year = 1995)

A paper by Ferreira and Gyourko (2011)* shows the real estate booms in some cities started in 1997-1999 and grew slowly for a while before taking off.

I wanted to see how the booms developed from the very beginning so I moved the base year back to 1995 from 2000.

The authors of that study consider a jump in prices as the beginning of a housing boom. That is, if prices have been increasing at around 3% a year for a few years and then they jump to 6% in one year, that jump is the beginning of the boom.

Bubble View – Case-Shiller Home Price Index (1995 = 100)

Sorry but the chart doesn’t have data for Dallas. Case-Shiller doesn’t have data before 2000 for Dallas so I can’t shift its base year back to 1995.

Inflation-Adjusted Bubble View – Case-Shiller Home Price Index (1995 = 100)

Note: I applied the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

* “Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom: U.S. Neighborhoods and Metropolitan Areas, 1993-2009,” Ferreira and Gyourko, 2011. (pdf)

CLICK HERE to see the original Case-Shiller charts.

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