EXCLUSIVE: Percent of Homes Increasing in Value – Vegas & SF Losing Mojo


You won’t see these graphs of Zillow data anywhere else online. They’re not even on Zillow.com, even though I get the raw data from Zillow.

Percent of Homes Increasing in Value” is another way to look at how strong prices are in a city. Theoretically, it can help us peek around the corner a bit.

High and Rising

  • Tampa
  • Boston
  • Atlanta
  • Charlotte
  • Minneapolis

High and RisingFull size

High and Flat

  • Portland
  • Seattle
  • Denver
  • Dallas
  • Phoenix
  • Miami
  • San Diego
  • Los Angeles
  • Detroit

High and FlatFull size

High and Falling

  • San Francisco
  • Las Vegas

High and FallingFull size

Neutral and Rising

  • None

Neutral and Flat

  • Chicago
  • Washington DC

Neutral and FlatFull size

Neutral and Falling

  • New York
  • Cleveland

Neutral and FallingFull size

More details on this dataset here and here.

The groupings aren’t exact. I’m just eyeballing it.


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  1. That is interesting! When you go to the first graph, clear all the other cities, and click on your own, you get a very local view.

    Weirdly, Phoenix’s is now not all that much lower than it was during the bubble. Does that indicate we’re in another bubble? Or simply that values have increased with an improving economy and reflect that economic improvement?

  2. Thanks for the comment, Vicky.

    It’s more that Phoenix is in a very strong market, right at the moment anyway, but it’s not the mania of 2005 and 2006 when Zillow’s estimated percentage of homes increasing in value was consistently hitting 100%.

    Now Phoenix is at 85% of homes increasing in value which is obviously a strong upward trend. It may not be sustainable but it’s not mania.

    My biggest concern about the Phoenix real estate market is what would happen if interest rates increased, I’ll say returned to the mean. I think the real estate market would be very sensitive to increased rates.

    But I wonder if we’ll ever see 6% mortgage rates again. I’ve been predicting higher rates for years so I’ve given up on that and conceded that I don’t understand what’s happening with interest rates.

    Maybe this time is different. Maybe 4% mortgage rates are the new normal and there’s no return to the mean.

    Nah. These low rates can’t go on forever, can they?

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